December 20, 2025

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: The Real CEO Sabotaging Your Growth

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: The Real CEO Sabotaging Your Growth

When is ‘too far in’ actually ‘just the beginning of the end’?

The Temperature of Stagnation

Now, the air in the conference room has reached that specific, stale temperature of 25 degrees Celsius, where oxygen feels like a luxury and the humming of the projector is the only thing keeping us from collective sleep. I am staring at page 115 of the quarterly report for ‘Project Goliath.’ My thumb is twitching. I am thinking about a text message I sent 5 years ago to an ex-partner, defending a relationship that was already a smoking crater of resentment. It is the same feeling here. We are all breathing in the fumes of a dying idea, yet no one is opening a window.

The executive sponsor, a man whose tie is knotted with the precision of a hangman’s noose, clears his throat.

‘We’ve invested $825,000 into the Goliath infrastructure,’ he says, his voice carrying the weight of a 45-ton anchor.

‘We’ve come too far to stop now. The market will turn. We need to double down and commit another 15 percent of the annual budget to the final push.’ There it is. The ghost in the machine. The Sunk Cost Fallacy has entered the room, and it is currently the highest-paid person at the table.

The Beautiful, Tragic Lie

I spent last night reading through my old text messages, a masochistic ritual I perform every few years to remind myself of how much of a stranger I used to be. I found a thread from 2015 where I spent 45 minutes arguing with a friend about why I should stay at a job that was clearly making me miserable. My argument then was identical to the one being made for Project Goliath today:

‘I’ve already put in three years. If I leave now, those three years were a waste.’ It’s a beautiful, tragic lie. Those three years were gone the moment they happened. Staying for a fourth year didn’t buy back the first three; it just stole a fourth.

[Sunk cost is just an ego with a balance sheet.]

Aisha Y., our subtitle timing specialist, is sitting three seats down from me. She is the kind of person who notices if a comma is 5 milliseconds out of sync with a speaker’s breath. She’s been tracking the data on Goliath for 235 days. Two weeks ago, she sent a memo-it was ignored-explaining that the user engagement metrics had dropped by 65 percent since the last update. The market doesn’t want Goliath. The market wants something lean, something quick, something that doesn’t feel like it was built by a committee of 55 people who haven’t spoken to a customer since the Clinton administration.

The Cost of Protecting a Legacy

Aisha Y. catches my eye and gives a microscopic shrug. She knows. I know. Even the executive sponsor probably knows, deep in the lizard brain that hasn’t been colonized by corporate jargon. But Goliath is his legacy. To kill Goliath is to admit that he spent 25 months chasing a ghost. In the world of high-level management, being wrong is often seen as a greater sin than being broke. So, we keep spending. We pour another $125,000 into a black hole because it’s easier to explain a ‘long-term investment’ than a ‘total failure.’

Goliath User Engagement Metrics (Relative to Launch)

Initial Health

100%

Current Engagement

35%

(Metrics tracked over 235 days)

Wired to Finish What We Start

This isn’t just a corporate problem; it’s a biological glitch. Our ancestors who didn’t finish the half-eaten mammoth might have starved, so we are wired to finish what we start. But in the modern economy, this instinct is a suicide pact. We see it in everything from software development to home renovations. We see it when someone spends

$575 on a ‘grey-market’ gadget that breaks in 35 days, and then spends another

$235 trying to fix it instead of just buying a replacement with a real warranty. They are tethered to the original mistake.

$575

Initial Mistake

+

$235

Repair Effort

$810

Total Cost to Fix Failure

When you make a purchase from a reliable source like Bomba.md, you aren’t just buying hardware; you’re buying a hedge against the sunk cost of future repairs. Having an official warranty means you don’t have to keep throwing good money after bad. You have a clear path. If the tech fails, the system handles it. You aren’t left standing in a kitchen at 5 in the morning trying to solder a motherboard because you’re too deep into the investment to give up. Rationality is knowing when the cost of repair exceeds the value of the experience.

Building a Prison Out of Effort

I remember a project I worked on where the primary database was fundamentally flawed. It was built on an architecture that was 15 years out of date. We knew it within the first 45 days. But because the CTO had personally hand-picked the vendor, we spent the next 235 days building ‘wrappers’ and ‘bridges’ to make it work. Every bridge we built was another reason why we ‘couldn’t’ switch to a better system. We were building a prison out of our own efforts. I think about the

455 pages of documentation we wrote for a system that was eventually scrapped. That documentation is probably still sitting in a cloud drive somewhere, a digital monument to the inability to say, ‘I was wrong.’

Day 45: Insight

Architecture proven flawed.

Days 46 – 235: Building Walls

235 days spent bridging the gap.

Post-Scrap: Documentation

455 pages of effort remained.

Opportunity Cost: The True Loss

The tragedy of Project Goliath isn’t the money. It’s the 25 talented people in this room who could be building something that actually matters. It’s Aisha Y. spending her 55-hour work week timing subtitles for a product that won’t have 125 users by next Christmas. It’s the opportunity cost. Every dollar we spend on the ghost of Goliath is a dollar we aren’t spending on the next breakthrough. We are so afraid of losing what we’ve already spent that we are willing to lose everything we have left.

🧑💻

Talent Diverted

25 People Stuck

💸

Budget Bleeding

$125k poured in next

Lost Potential

Years spent on the wrong path

I’ve made this mistake myself, more times than I’d like to admit. I once spent 75 hours trying to fix a $15 lamp because I had already bought the expensive replacement bulbs. I felt ‘smart’ for not wasting the bulbs, ignoring the fact that my hourly rate should have made that lamp the most expensive light source in the history of the Northern Hemisphere. It’s a form of madness. We value our past effort more than our future potential.

The Rational Choice: Starting from Zero

How do we break the cycle? It starts with a brutal, almost clinical separation of ‘what has happened’ and ‘what will happen.’ The $825,000 we spent on Goliath is gone. It does not exist. It is a ghost. If we were starting today, with $0 spent and $125,000 in the bank, would we choose to build Goliath? The answer in this room is a deafening, silent ‘no.’ But because the money has already left the bank account, we act as if it’s still there, pulling us toward the cliff.

With History (Goliath)

Keep Spending

Driven by past investment ($825k)

VS

Starting Today ($0 Spent)

Stop Now

Driven by future potential ($125k saved)

I decide to speak up. It’s a 5-percent chance of working and a 95-percent chance of me being invited to ‘explore other opportunities’ by the end of the week.

‘What if we just stopped?’ I ask. The silence that follows is exactly 15 seconds long, but it feels like a decade. The executive sponsor looks at me as if I’ve just suggested we sacrifice his first-born to a pagan god. ‘Stop?’ he repeats. ‘We have 55 stakeholders expecting a launch by Q3.’

‘The stakeholders expect a return,’ I say, my voice steadier than I feel. ‘Goliath won’t give them one. We are protecting our reputations, not their investment.’

Aisha Y. nods, just once. It’s enough. I realize that the real CEO of this company isn’t the man in the tie, and it isn’t the board of directors. It’s a pile of receipts from three years ago. It’s the fear of a bruised ego. It’s the inability to look at a half-finished, failing bridge and say, ‘Let’s just swim instead.’

Firing the Fallacy

The Hardest Part of Moving On

We ended the meeting 25 minutes late, as usual. No decisions were made to pivot. We’ll be back here in 45 days, looking at page 235 of a new report, talking about how we just need another 5 months to see the ‘synergy’ manifest. I walk out into the cool evening air, which is a refreshing 15 degrees, and I think about those old text messages again. The hardest part of moving on isn’t the loss of what you had; it’s the acceptance that you were wrong to hold on for so long.

Final Insight

If you’re sitting in a room right now, staring at your own version of Project Goliath, whether it’s a job, a relationship, or a $575 ‘investment’ that’s bleeding you dry, ask yourself one question: If you walked into this situation today for the first time, with no history and no baggage, would you stay?

If the answer is NO, then every second you remain is just another payment to a CEO that doesn’t care if you succeed or fail, as long as you keep paying the bill. It’s time to fire the fallacy and hire your future.

Analysis of Cognitive Biases in Decision Making.